[SMM Analysis] Shanghai-Oriented Electrical Steel Prices to Remain in the Doldrums Next Week with Potential for Minor Declines

Published: Aug 15, 2025 13:37

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[Shanghai Electrical Steel Prices Expected to Remain in the Doldrums Next Week with Potential Minor Declines] Looking ahead to next week, as the impact of news-driven factors gradually subsides, the electrical steel market is likely to revert to being primarily influenced by off-season fundamentals. Given the current ample market supply and weak demand-side support, Shanghai's electrical steel prices are expected to remain largely in the doldrums next week, with the possibility of minor price reductions for certain specifications due to inventory pressure.

Price Dynamics of Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel

Shanghai B23R085 grade: 14,100-14,300 yuan/mt

Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 14,000-14,200 yuan/mt

This week, Shanghai's grain-oriented electrical steel prices also remained stable, with sluggish market trading activity and overall performance falling short of expectations.

The considerable fluctuations in HRC futures impacted market sentiment for grain-oriented electrical steel. Earlier, boosted by strengthened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and the positive news of 30%-50% production restrictions for coking plants ahead of the September 3 military parade, the market held short-term optimism for the ferrous metals series, leading traders to maintain stable quotes. However, as rumors emerged about stricter government scrutiny of export orders, coupled with unmet expectations regarding new mine safety regulations shutting down small and medium-sized mines, along with increased transaction fees and DCE's anticipated measures to cool coking coal prices, the follow-up rally ended, triggering a deep futures correction. This dampened market confidence, with some traders offering slight discounts to accelerate capital turnover.

Fundamentally, grain-oriented electrical steel supply remained stable, with some steel mills' regular order resources gradually reaching traders, ensuring ample market availability. Downstream industries remained in the off-season, with key enterprises like transformer and motor manufacturers showing limited procurement enthusiasm, mainly digesting existing inventory and restocking only in small batches as needed, providing weak price support.

Looking ahead, as the impact of news-driven factors gradually fades, the grain-oriented electrical steel market may return to off-season fundamentals. Given current ample supply and weak demand-side support, Shanghai prices are likely to remain in the doldrums next week, with potential minor discounts for certain specifications due to inventory pressure.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public sources, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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